Adrian Flux

Cars due for extinction

Which cars will soon be gone from our roads? Adrian Flux reveals the motors set for extinction by 2030

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Using data from the Department for Transport, we calculated the average change per quarter in the numbers of vehicles taxed (VED paid) from Q1 2010 to Q3 2019. This allowed us to map a trajectory for licencing, revealing the date by which each model could be exiting British roads.

Here we have featured 10 of our favourite motors that we’ll most likely be bidding farewell to as well as a full top 30.

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Renault Laguna

Renault Laguna

Predicted extinction date: 2022 Q1

Renault Laguna

Renault launched the Laguna in 1993 into a market that had just welcomed the Ford Mondeo and Citroen Xantia. Buyers loved it for its practical and spacious interior and stylish exterior – a rare treat in the family-car market. Its popularity resulted in a makeover in 2001, and again in 2007, but the marque decided to park the model indefinitely – to be replaced by the larger, Talisman.

Despite being a consumer favourite, 2,300 Lagunas are being scrapped every three months. On the flip side, high-quality examples of later performance specs can fetch up to £5,000 second hand, while run-of-the-mill models can be picked up for as little as a few hundred. Figures suggest that there will be none by early 2022 – and no longer will we see that immediately recognisable bonnet on our roads.

Peugeot 206

Peugeot 206

Predicted extinction date: 2022 Q2

Peugeot 206

First launched in 1998, the 206 enjoyed success throughout its eight-year UK production cycle, becoming Peugeot’s best-selling model of all time, totalling 8.3 million globally. This was no mean feat as other superminis on the market included the wildly popular Ford Fiesta and VW Polo.

A slick advertising campaign and the 206 WRC winning both the World Rally manufacturers' and drivers' championships in 2000 and 2002, helped to maintain popularity amongst the general public throughout the early 2000s. Variants kept this momentum going with the introduction of the coupé cabriolet 206 CC in 2000 and the high performance GTi 180 and RC joining the UK and European markets respectively in 2003.

But since UK production ended in 2006, what was once a hugely popular model is rapidly disappearing from British roads. With 14,570 fewer every quarter, it is expected that the 206 may have vanished entirely by the summer of 2022.

Vauxhall Vectra

Vauxhall Vectra

Predicted extinction date: 2022 Q3

Vauxhall Vectra

Produced as a direct replacement for the popular Cavalier, the Vauxhall Vectra first came to the UK with the model B in 1995 (the rebadged Opel Vectra model A was first sold as a Cavalier Mk III in the UK in 1988). Drivers found little to be inspired by in the incremental upgrade and the reviews reflected this indifference. Not only did Jeremy Clarkson famously refuse to drive it for Top Gear, it was included on the show's “worst cars of the last 20 years” list in 2013.

In line with its style, sales were steady, if not record-breaking. While there was not much flair to the design, a reliable family car with a powerful engine proved to be ideal for many and the Vectra was consistently in the top 10 UK bestsellers during its 12-years in production.

Now, with only 97,738 left on the road and its conservative style unlikely to see it become an unexpected classic, the Vectra could be making its final bow in the autumn of 2022.

Renault Scenic

Renault Scenic

Predicted extinction date: 2023 Q2

Renault Scenic

The success of the first-generation Scenic caught Renault by surprise. Originally marketed as an MPV, the Scenic launched in 1996 and was expected to fulfil a niche for those looking for a more affordable version of the Espace. Initial production of the Megane-based model was expected to see 450 produced per day, but at its peak close to 2,500 were manufactured daily to meet demand. A restyling in 1999 added improved 16v engines, increased dashboard storage and changes to the tailgate window and headrests.

A four-wheel drive model, the RX4, launched in 2000. Larger wheels and increased suspension showed promise, but only offering the same 2.0 engine as the Megane did not encourage sales. Production ended entirely in 2003 to make way for the Scenic II in June 2003.

While the Scenic range is still going strong, the remaining 83,091 may only have a few more years left on the roads.

Ford Escort

Ford Escort

Predicted extinction date: 2023 Q4

Ford Escort

It’s hard to imagine British roads without this truly iconic car. The Ford Anglia was a popular car, but the Escort took its predecessor’s mantle with aplomb – even outselling its stablemate, the Cortina. The car quickly became the best-selling UK car on the market boasting cutting edge style and value for money. Despite its every-man appeal, performance models in the world of motor racing – and 31 world championship rally wins – set it up as a realistic dream car for millions.

Into the 1990s, the Mondeo and Focus began to steal the Escort’s thunder and Ford stopped production in July 2000 – leaving it with a sales total of more than four million. Performance spec Fords – in particular the Ford Mexico – still have their admirers but we can expect there to be nothing of these cherished relics on our roads by the year 2023.

Saab 9-5

Saab 9-5

Predicted extinction date: 2024 Q1

Saab 9-5

All cars say something about their owners, and Saab – the architect’s favourite – said: I need a practical car (like a Renault), but I want performance (like a BMW) in a car that says, ‘I’m not like everyone else’ (so, not Audi). After a rich history of automobile construction since 1945, the 90s saw Saab restructured with General Motors taking a 50% share. 1997 marked the company’s 50th year and launch of the 9-5 and 9-3 models. On the back of this positive momentum, GM decided to buy out the remaining shares, making Saab a wholly-owned subsidiary in 2000. However, this meant that the ‘proper Saab’ was gone – the brand had become a badge only and eventually filed for bankruptcy in 2011.

Life with a Saab can be a challenge as many of the diagnostic systems can only be accessed by special Saab machines which can make check-ups and repairs expensive and inconvenient (if there’s no one with one nearby). Finding parts can also be an issue. As such, only the most loved cars will remain on our roads, as people gradually switch to cheaper, more convenient ones. Still, well-kept high-spec models fetch up to £5,000 as 4,400 leave the roads each year.

Honda Accord

Honda Accord

Predicted extinction date: 2025 Q1

Honda Accord

The Honda Accord has been on the road since 1976 and, with its 10th generation launching in 2017, this classic continues to evolve as it crosses generations – but not in the UK. In 2015 it was announced that the Accord would be axed from the UK market due to the trend away from saloon models, a shrinking European market and increased competition.

The Accord has been consistently successful and popular over the years, winning numerous safety awards and prizes for ‘Car of the Year’ from around the world. With a history of success in multiple motorsports events - not least three consecutive European Touring Car Cup wins between 2009 and 2011 - it’s a shame to see its UK presence fading away.

The number of Accords on British roads peaked at over 162,000 in 2005, but has been in steady decline ever since. As of autumn 2019, there were just 49,000 in active use, a trajectory that could see the once popular model disappear by the mid-2020s.

Renault Megane

Renault Megane

Predicted extinction date: 2026 Q2

Renault Megane

Introduced in 1995 to replace the R19, the Megane has been available in almost every style - hatchback, saloon coupe and estate – over the years. As well as being versatile, safety has long been associated with range. In 1996 it became one of the first cars to earn a 4-star NCAP rating, with the second generation being the first to achieve the 5-star status.

However, by 2011 Renault UK had been on a difficult trajectory for a number of years. As sales collapsed in the later part of the 2000s, many models such as the Laguna and Espace were dropped as the company’s market share hit a low of 2% in 2013.

The Megane may have avoided the cull, but the knock-on effect seems to have sent this famous model into terminal decline. Despite still being in production, the number licenced in the UK has taken a 20,000 drop since 2010, meaning that the Megane might become extinct as early as 2026.

Subaru Impreza

Subaru Impreza

Predicted extinction date: 2027 Q3

Subaru Impreza

The Subaru Impreza earned fans the world over for its racing credibility - as if its raised bonnet inlet was a sign to other road users that its owner knew a thing or two about performance motors. Just as buying a Porsche was buying a racing car for the roads, the Impreza was a rally car for the road. But it was also a practical family car.

Its perennial popularity saw it receive four makeovers since its creation, taking into its current incarnation at generation five - the GT, the GK and XV amongst other variations. The Impreza remains in production, but the figures signal a slow decline, with just over 600 cars being scrapped or registered as SORN every three months.

Ford Mondeo

Ford Mondeo

Predicted extinction date: 2029 Q2

Ford Mondeo

The Ford Mondeo was a new car that combined aspects of the outgoing Sierra, the Escort and the Granada. All of its faces will be familiar to UK drivers from MKs I through IV. While the latter received criticism from the motoring community for ‘stealing’ its grille shape from Aston Martin - the sexy new look has sealed the model’s enduring popularity and earned it a new generation of fans.

Despite this, we are losing nearly 9,000 Mondeos every year as more are scrapped than are replaced by new sales. With 300,000 still on the roads, we can expect further decline over the next decade - leaving only the much-loved performance versions in the hands of its fans.

The full list

Top 30 cars due for extinction this decade

Renault Laguna

Years of production1994-2015
Number left at the end of 201922,586
Predecessor21 Savanna
Predicted extinction date2022 Q1

Peugeot 206

Years of production1998-2006
Number left at the end of 2019150,118
Predecessor205
Predicted extinction date2022 Q2

Nissan Almera

Years of production2000-2006 (Europe)
Number left at the end of 201942,411
PredecessorSunny
Predicted extinction date2022 Q2

Vauxhall Vectra

Years of production1995-2008 (UK)
Number left at the end of 201997,738
PredecessorCavalier (UK)
Predicted extinction date2022 Q3

Peugeot 307

Years of production2001-2007
Number left at the end of 2019101,322
Predecessor306
Predicted extinction date2022 Q4

Citroen Xsara Picasso

Years of production2000-2010 (UK)
Number left at the end of 201982,308
PredecessorZX
Predicted extinction date2022 Q4

Renault Scenic

Years of production1996-2003
Number left at the end of 201983,091
PredecessorMegane
Predicted extinction date2023 Q2

Citroen C5

Years of production2001-2017
Number left at the end of 201918,539
PredecessorXM/Xantia
Predicted extinction date2023 Q3

Fiat Punto

Years of production1993-2018
Number left at the end of 2019123,919
PredecessorUno
Predicted extinction date2023 Q4

Ford Escort

Years of production1968-2000 (UK)
Number left at the end of 201914,561
PredecessorAnglia
Predicted extinction date2023 Q4

Peugeot 407

Years of production2004-2010
Number left at the end of 201925,451
Predecessor406
Predicted extinction date2024 Q1

Saab 9-5

Years of production1997-2012
Number left at the end of 201919,093
Predecessor9-3
Predicted extinction date2024 Q1

Toyota Celica

Years of production‎1971-2006
Number left at the end of 201914,576
PredecessorCarina
Predicted extinction date2024 Q3

Honda Accord

Years of production1975-2015 (UK)
Number left at the end of 201948,811
PredecessorNone
Predicted extinction date:2025 Q1

Jaguar S-Type

Years of production1999–2007
Number left at the end of 201923,596
PredecessorXJ6
Predicted extinction date2025 Q2

Jaguar X-Type

Years of production2001–2009
Number left at the end of 201955,921
PredecessorMark 2 (1959)
Predicted extinction date2025 Q4

Citroen C2

Years of production2003-2009
Number left at the end of 201929,229
PredecessorSaxo
Predicted extinction date2025 Q4

Renault Megane

Years of production1995-present
Number left at the end of 2019172,242
PredecessorR19
Predicted extinction date2026 Q2

Volvo S40

Years of production1995-2012
Number left at the end of 201932,875
Predecessor440
Predicted extinction date2026 Q2

Suzuki Wagon R

Years of production1993-present
Number left at the end of 201915,229
PredecessorAlto
Predicted extinction date2026 Q2

Ford Ka

Years of production1996-2008
Number left at the end of 2019239,910
PredecessorFiesta
Predicted extinction date2027 Q1

Saab 9-3

Years of production1998-2014
Number left at the end of 201969,149
Predecessor900
Predicted extinction date2027 Q1

Subaru Impreza

Years of production1992-present
Number left at the end of 201920,980
PredecessorLeone
Predicted extinction date2027 Q3

Mercedes-Benz E 320

Years of production1996-2003
Number left at the end of 201919,590
PredecessorW124
Predicted extinction date2027 Q3

Toyota Avensis

Years of production1997-2018
Number left at the end of 2019106,788
PredecessorCorona
Predicted extinction date2028 Q1

Hyundai Getz

Years of production2002-2011
Number left at the end of 201937,699
PredecessorExcel
Predicted extinction date2028 Q1

Ford Mondeo

Years of production>1993-present
Number left at the end of 2019301,848
PredecessorEscort
Predicted extinction date2029 Q2

Renault Grand Scenic

Years of production2004-present
Number left at the end of 201944,162
PredecessorScenic
Predicted extinction date2028 Q2

Suzuki Grand Vitara

Years of production1998-2018
Number left at the end of 201935,315
PredecessorVitara
Predicted extinction date2028 Q4

Toyota Corolla

Years of production1966-present
Number left at the end of 2019120,600
PredecessorPublica
Predicted extinction date2029 Q1

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